Know the Numbers: Our Data Chooses the Super Bowl Winner

Why leave the guessing to ESPN? I asked Amanda, our data guru, to look into some Super Bowl stats on Eventbrite so we could pick a winner.

Here’s what I came up with:

Team’s final score in 2011 Super Bowl =
Total number of Super Bowl parties on Eventbrite in 2012
–  [(Total number of championships the team has won – Quarterback’s jersey number) – (Number of Eventbrite parties in the home state of the team x Number of team’s Super Bowl appearances since 2000)]
–  Number of Super Bowl parties on Eventbrite in California
–  127 if your city name begins with “P” OR – 1 if your city name begins with “G”

Let’s plug in the teams’ info:

Green Bay Packers                                    Pittsburgh Steelers

213 – [(13×12) – (0x1)] – 25 – 1                 213 – [(6 x 7) – (2 x 3)] – 25 – 127
213 – (156 – 0) – 25 – 1                             213 – (42 – 6) – 25 – 127
213 – 156 – 25 – 1                                     213 – 36 – 25 – 127
Final Score = 31                                        Final Score = 25

Perfect. Code, cracked. Let’s replicate this for the 2012 teams:

New York Giants                                         New England Patriots

213 – [(7 x 10) – (15 x 1)] – 24 – 0             213 – [(3 x 12) – (5 x 14)] – 24 – 0
213 – (70-15) – 24 – 0                               213 – (36 – 70) – 24 – 0
213 – 55 – 24                                             213 – (-34) – 24 – 0
Final Score = 134                                      Final Score = 223

Will Tom Brady help score 223 points for New England? Probably not.

According to my theory, the New England Patriots are going to win Sunday’s game, in a whopping 223 – 134 victory.

As you’ve probably figured out by now, I’m not a data analyst. Nor am I a Giants fan (Go Pats!).

Rather than paying attention to my flimsy formulas that have the Patriots destroying New York (note that the numbers “18” and “1” are not included in my study), check out some findings we grabbed about the Super Bowl.

2012: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots

  • 213 Super Bowl parties (as of Jan. 30, 2012)
  • 15 parties in New York; 14 parties in Massachusetts
  • 11 parties outside of the U.S. (2 in Canada, 1 in Dominican Republic, 6 in Great Britain, 1 in Ireland, 1 in Italy)
  • Most parties are in California (24) and Indiana (18)

There are two pieces of data here that I think are really cool. First, is that we’ve seen an uptick in the number of international Super Bowl parties. I love the idea of a bunch of people in, say, Italy, getting together in the middle of the night to watch the game.

Second, I think it’s fascinating that more parties are in the state where the Super Bowl is hosted (Indiana), than in the home states of the championship teams (New York or Massachusetts). It seems that people are more willing to celebrate if the Bowl is on their home turf. Or, people in New York and Massachusetts are just waiting to the last minute to plan their events.

Finally, for good measure, here’s how the National Anthem singers match up in the history of events on Eventbrite.

Events that mention 2011 National Anthem singer, Christina Aguilera – 66
Events that mention 2012 National Anthem singer, Kelly Clarkson – 19

Uh-oh. Good luck, Kelly. Now, go get some chips, go get some beer, and go Pats.

Do you have a Super Bowl prediction? Share in the comments below, or tell us on Facebook and Twitter.